Happy Hump Day!
Doesn’t get much better than this in early August, especially considering where we have been over the last month or so.
Tomorrow will be a transition day…it will be a bit warmer, a bit more humid and with a steady increase in cloud cover as well. Not a bad day by any means but not quite as nice as the last couple.
And now on to Friday
Friday is expected to be a very wet and unsettled weather day, nearly from start to finish.
The heaviest rain is likely to come in the afternoon and evening.
The threat of severe thunderstorms is not as high as it has been during our last few alert events, however, there is a chance of a few severe thunderstorms on Friday.
We are most concerned about some additional localized flooding and torrential rainfall. Some areas could receive upward of an inch or two of water in a relatively short period of time.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed just about the entire region in a “marginal” risk for excessive rainfall on Friday. This may be upgraded in the days ahead.
Many of our weather models are pointing towards a very wet PM commute Friday.
The heaviest rain should tend to slide south later Friday night and we expect that by Saturday morning, most, if not all, of the rains will be offshore.
The Weekend is looking spectacular! Lowering humidity once again and lots of sunshine!
Now on to the Farmers’ Almanac…
It’s the most wonderful time of the year…
Today, on August 2nd, the Farmers’ Almanac released their 2023/2024 winter outlook. Lovely.
I dunno about you, but the recent coolish days and crisp nights have been playing games with my head. This summer is FLYING by and I NOT ready to come to grips with that. And, this is coming from a lover of all things fall and pumpkin!
And now we get this from the Farmers’ Almanac?
The BRRR is Back!
Winter weather is making a comeback. After a warm winter anomaly last year, traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions will return to the contiguous United States.
Our extended weather forecast, which is based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, calls for below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, ice, and rain for much of the Great Lakes and Midwest areas of the country, as well as central and northern New England, especially in January and February. (Brrr…)
Come on now…
I don’t want to sound like a Farmers’ Almanac hater (probably too late for that), but I feel like I have heard this before…like every year!
I admit, I don’t keep a running diary of their yearly winter forecasts, but I can never remember them coming out and saying anything like…”nothing to see here, this winter is going to be mild and lame”. Something tells me that wouldn’t grab any headlines or sell any extra copies.
This year’s edition also includes the typical way-too-specific snowstorm forecasts…
The second week of January will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States.
An East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures, during the second week of February.
Another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area during the first week of March.
While none of the above would come as a great surprise to any New Englander, meteorologically speaking there is no way to make such predictions. It would be like throwing a dart, while blind-folded, and trying to hit a moving target that is 100 yards away (farther than you can actually throw a dart).
So how does the Almanac make such predictions?
They claim to use a 200-year-old formula that takes into account things like: sunspots, tides and planetary position. However, it appears that there is only one man who truly knows the formula, Calen Weatherbee. Naturally, he was given a code-name to protect his identity. They actually claim that the forecasts are predicted TWO YEARS in advance and are never changed! I mean what could possibly change in the course of two years…
I am sure you are wondering if there could be any truth to this forecast. To that I would say, anything is possible…a broken clock is right twice a day.
I am not about to give you our WBZ winter forecast just yet. Way too many unknowns in the atmosphere and so much that can and will change in the coming months. BUT, lemme give you a few nuggets…
The biggest factor this winter, by far, will be the oncoming and strengthening El Nino.There are no guarantees with regards to wintertime weather in New England during an El Nino.Some of our lamest and least snowy winters have come during El Nino’s, but we have also had some cold and snowy ones as well. In the months ahead, we will be closely monitoring how strong the El Nino becomes and where the warmest Pacific waters are located (El Nino’s are characterized by anomalously warm Ocean water in the Pacific off of South America).
If the warmest anomalies remain close to the South American Coastline (like they are now), that setup would favor a milder winter here (in general).
If the warmer water becomes more centrally located (west of where it is now), also known as a “Modoki El Nino” then we might be in for a colder winter.
But, it isn’t nearly that simple. There are so many other factors that will need to play out in the coming months. Another big thing to watch will be the location of a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska.
Remember some of those frigid winters around 2013-2014? Those were marked by a persistent pool of warm water sitting south of Alaska. This promoted ridging (and warmth) in the west and bitterly cold air in the midwest and northeast.
I could go on and on…bottom line, at this point nobody really knows how this winter is going to play out. That forecast will evolve over the coming months and even when we do release a forecast sometime in November, it will still be highly speculative and filled with “ifs, ands and buts”.
I wish you good luck Caleb Weatherbee! I am heading back to the beach.
Click here for Westford snow storm data and past totals or select “Winter Snowfall“ under “Pages” on the left hand side.
For more up to date forecast information follow me on Twitter (@terrywbz) or follow the WBZ weather team on Facebook, search WBZWeather
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