New England is known for its great summer and fall weather and typically, it is pretty safe to plan some time off around the July 4th holiday stretch. Unlike Memorial Weekend, there are very few things that can go wrong in early July. The nor’easter season is long gone. The Ocean is still chilly but not nearly as brutal as earlier in the spring, so sea breezes won’t necessarily ruin your beach day.
The hurricane season is underway, but it is very rare to get a tropical system up here this early.
Taking a look at the July averages, this is about as good as it gets for summer in these parts.
So, having said all that…what could possibly go wrong?
Well, I don’t have to tell you, the weather pattern lately has been rather brutal. We are a couple raindrops away from setting a record for most days in June with measurable rainfall.
The wet, unsettled pattern we have been in for much of June is showing signs of easing, but it won’t just completely go away. That being said, I am cautiously optimistic for the upcoming holiday stretch. There will be a few bumps in the road, but overall, plenty of good times for cookouts, beaches or whatever you may have planned.
Day by day holiday weather breakdown…
FRIDAY:
Starting your weekend on Friday? Great idea!
This will be one of the best days we have had in some time!
Partly to mostly sunny, highs in the low to mid 80s, (70s at the beaches).
And, best of all, very little risk of any shower activity. I’d give it 10% and mainly across central and northern New England.
SATURDAY:
If Friday is the winner of the weekend, then Saturday is the runner up.
Partly sunny overall, few more clouds around than Friday.
Another largely shower-free day, somewhere between 10-20% chance of a brief shower, mainly over southeastern MA and across northern New England.
High temperatures similar to Friday, perhaps a degree or two cooler.
SUNDAY:
More clouds than sunshine expected on Sunday, especially in the afternoon. We will likely see some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing to the west of Boston in the PM, call it a 50% chance of a shower.
Temperatures a bit cooler than Saturday, mainly topping out in the mid to upper 70s given the increase in clouds cover.
MONDAY:
Right now, Monday appears to be the day with the highest risk of showers and storms. Not expecting a washout by any means, but I think most of us will likely be dodging a shower at some point during the day on Monday.
In places where the sun pops for a few hours, it will be quite warm and humid, perhaps 80-85 degrees. Other locations with more clouds and showers will remain in the 70s.
At this point I wouldn’t favor one region or another as far as the shower threat goes, stay tuned to updated forecasts this weekend.
TUESDAY, JULY 4:
Periods of clouds and sun on Tuesday with the likelihood of some showers and storms popping in the afternoon and evening. It will be another very humid day, but cloud cover and scattered showers should keep high temperatures mainly in the 70s to near 80.
Again, stay tuned to forecast updates over the weekend to get a better idea of where the highest risk of storms may be.
Given that most of the storm action will be driven by daytime heating and not any sort of front or organized storm, most areas should dry out by the time fireworks displays are set to go off.
Lastly, if you are headed to the Cape, Islands or Lakes region, I am not expecting much variation day to day in temperatures or shower chances, especially when we get to Sunday through Tuesday. I expect that each day there will be several hours of good weather and also a risk of a storm or two.
Have a safe and happy holiday!
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