Models are coming into better agreement and the snow forecast for Saturday is becoming a bit more clear. It appears as though this storm will take the shape of a classic early or late season winter storm in southern New England. Tough to get much snow accumulation close to the Coastline (largely thanks to a relatively mild Ocean), and the favored “jackpot” areas likely to the north and west especially with elevation.
This one will be a very heavy, wet, pasty snow. For the most part, the snow will be falling into surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Not to mention, it will be following several hours of rainfall and landing on unfrozen, mild ground. All of those factors lead us, forecasters, to believe that heavy snow accumulation will be hard to come by. There is one caveat, one “wildcard” if you will. Just about the only way to get a significant snow accumulation at lower elevations in a situation like this is with heavy banding. As this storm intensifies south of Long Island and eventually just to the south of Cape Cod, it will likely produce a band of heavy snowfall somewhere to the north and west of the centers passing. These bands can really mess up an otherwise good forecast, many times dropping several inches of snowfall in an hour for several hours over the same locations. So, this could be one of those situations where you get a sloppy inch or two in one area and a few towns over (under an overachieving heavy snow band) get more than a foot.ADVERTISING
(WBZ-TV Graphic)
Our biggest concern is trying to determine IF that snow band forms, WHERE does it form and for HOW LONG does it last? 6″ or more of heavy, wet snow falling in just a few hours can cause significant tree and power line damage, leading to numerous power outages. As of now, the most likely location for this to occur appears to be in the higher elevations of Worcester county and southwest New Hampshire.
Got plans for Saturday? Let’s break this down hour by hour…
8 a.m. Saturday
All rain at this point.
Rain shield covers most of southern New England
Light rain reaches up into southern New Hampshire
Steadier, heavier rain falling south of the Mass Pike
11 a.m. Saturday
Rain changing to wet snow in higher elevations of southern New England including hills of Worcester County and the Berkshires
Moderate, steady rain falling in eastern Mass.
Heavier downpours possible extreme southeast MA (Cape Cod area)
3 p.m. Saturday
Rain/snow line collapsing eastward, likely to Metrowest
Heavy, wet snow now falling in most places west of 495
Heavy banding likely setting up in Worcester county area
Light snow in western Mass., farther away from the storm center
Rain holding on along the South Coast, perhaps some wet flakes mixing in south and east of 128/I95
8 p.m. Saturday
Snow continues falling all the way to the Coast and in Boston
Rain holds on Plymouth county and on the Cape and Islands
Heavy banding may nudge eastward towards 495
Intensity of precipitation begins to lighten to the west as the storm starts to pull away
Back edge of snow visible on radar, nearing Worcester county
Midnight Saturday
Storm pulling away, focus of snow up in Maine
Light, leftover flurries MA east coast
Accumulation over
HOW MUCH?
1-3 inches: Immediate Coastline south of Boston
3-6 inches: Boston, Metrowest… north to Cape Ann and south along 128
6-12 inches: From outside 128 loop into Middlesex county, Worcester county and a good deal of southern New Hampshire.
12+ inches: From MassPike along 190 in Worcester County into southern New Hampshire… this is the area where banding is most likely and some overachieving may occur with snow totals.
Few final flurries possible South Shore and Cape very late at night as the system wraps up and pulls away, no accumulation expected
WINDS:
We expect winds to peak along the Cape Ann, the South Shore, Cape and Islands Saturday afternoon and evening with gusts 40-60 mph out of the north-northeast, changing to north-northwest later in the storm. Cape Ann may see gusts up to 70+mph.
Winds will taper off quickly inland.
COASTAL FLOODING:
Tides will be astronomically low, so not expecting any significant coastal flooding issues. High tides occur around 2pm Saturday afternoon and 3am Sunday morning, slightly before and after the peak of the winds.
As always, we urge that you stay tuned to updates before and during the storm on WBZ-TV, CBSBoston.com and CBSN Boston…we’ve got you covered!
Click here for Westford snow storm data and past totals or select “Winter Snowfall“ under “Pages” on the left hand side.
For more up to date forecast information follow me on Twitter (@terrywbz) or follow the WBZ weather team on Facebook, search WBZWeather
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