It has been one of the warmest starts to October on record. The City of Boston has surpassed 80 degrees in three of the last four days. Hard to get into the true fall spirit when it feels more like beach weather!
All of that is about to change…
A crisp, chilly airmass is about to pour into New England, bringing with it the coldest air of the season thus far.
High temperatures on Thursday will be some 20-25 degrees colder than what we have been experiencing in recent days.
But it is Thursday night when the real chill arrives…
With clear skies, dry air and light winds, temperatures will drop like a rock Thursday night into early Friday.
Most of the northern and western suburbs of Boston will bottom out between 28-32 degrees around 6-7am on Friday.
This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a freeze watch for that timeframe.
One thing to note…just because southern New Hampshire and northern Worcester county are not shaded in blue doesn’t mean that they won’t experience a freeze.
It is just too late in the season for those areas to be considered for freeze watch criteria.
You can see that in a typical year, areas like northern Worcester county and the Berkshires have their first frost in late September.
Areas in green and yellow in the picture typically have their first frost/freeze right around now…right on schedule!
As a reminder…a frost occurs when the water vapor in the air freezes on contact with surfaces like grass and your windshield. This can actually occur in temperatures near or slightly above 32 degrees. A frost doesn’t always lead to the death of vegetation.
A freeze on the other hand is much more deadly to existing, tender plant life. A freeze occurs when temperatures are at or just below 32 degrees, this what we expect in those areas north and west of Boston early on Friday.
Therefore, we do expect significant damage to plants.
Here’s the thing about Friday morning’s freeze, it is likely to be a “one-off” as we do not expect any similarly cold mornings for at least a week or more in the following days.
So, if you want to keep your mums or other plants and flowers alive for a while longer, I would advise taking some steps before you go to bed Thursday night.
For potted plants, you can simply bring them indoors for the night.
For vegetation in the soil, you have several options…you can cover them with a cloth of blanket, give them some extra water the night before or even load up the base with some additional mulch.
Does it seem like the growing season is lasting a bit longer than it once did? This is true! Climate change has pushed our first frost and freeze dates nearly a week longer on average in the Boston area over the last 50 years.
The fall season has been the second fastest warming season (only behind the winter) in our area over the last several decades.
The upcoming holiday weekend is one of the busiest of the entire calendar year in New England.
Tens of thousands flock up north for the amazing hiking and fall foliage. The local farms will be buzzing with apple and pumpkin pickers. It is also a popular weekend for folks to shut down their lake homes and secure their boats for the upcoming winter.
Well, here’s one thing you may not have planned for…a nor’easter!
Before you totally freak out, let me assure you that the entire weekend will not be a washout.
If you look at a satellite or radar image today of the United States, you won’t see much. In fact, you could literally drive for thousands of miles to the south or west and not hit a drop of rain. Currently, there is a large area of high pressure moving down from Canada…this is responsible for the chill in the air today and also for the clear, blue skies that stretch for hundreds of miles in every direction.
So, you ask, where is this supposed nor’easter?
For that we need to look about 1,500 miles from Boston, all the way down in western Cuba. The cold front that brough the rain Thursday extends all that through the western Caribbean and a little wave of low pressure is forming at the tail end of that front, south of Florida.
Over the coming days, this will lift northward and strengthen into a sizeable coastal storm riding just off the United States East Coast.
SATURDAY:
This will be the pick of the holiday weekend here in New England. We will see a good deal of sunshine with just some high cirrus clouds arriving later in the day.
Meanwhile, the coastal storm will be gaining strength off the southeast U.S. coast lashing the Carolina’s with a windswept rain.
SUNDAY:
We should start the day off dry, albeit with increasing cloudiness.
Rain and wind will blanket the Coastline from North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Long Island.
That shield of rain will push northward, into southern New England, during the day on Sunday.
If you want to increase your odds of staying dry on Sunday, head north. Central and northern New England should be rain-free for most of, if not all the daylight hours on Sunday.
The farther south you go, the earlier the rain arrives and the wetter you get.
The winds will also gradually increase on Sunday. By sunset, we expect east-northeast gusts 25-40mph across southeastern MA.
MONDAY:
Almost certain to be the wettest day of the weekend…Monday has the potential to be a windswept washout.
We still expect the heaviest rain to be in areas farthest south; however, showers are likely to extend as far as northern New England as well.
The winds will peak on Monday, gusting 25-45mph across most of southern New England.
Strongest gusts will be located along the immediate Coastline and in particular over Cape Cod and the Islands.
Needless to say, lots of leaves will be flying off the trees this weekend.
With 2-3 days of onshore winds, there are likely to be pockets of minor coastal flooding. Thankfully, the tides will be lowering (astronomically) off their peak from the king tides this past week. If you live along the Coast, I would circle the afternoon high tide on Sunday (around 4pm) and the evening tide on Monday (around 5pm) as times when splashover or minor inundation could occur.
While the timing may not be ideal, this system is likely to bring some much needed, beneficial rainfall to our area.
When all is said and done, there may be a few inches or more of rain in areas south of Boston.
