Are you ready? A real, true, honest-to-goodness, old fashion, New England snowstorm is on the way!
It has been 4 years since we had to endure anything quite like this…and for those who moved here after the winter of 2022, welp, you are about to be initiated! Welcome to New England!
Before we get started, a quick pre-winter storm checklist, just in case you may be out of practice…
Also, if you need to be in the car on Sunday or Monday, it is a good idea to be prepared just in case.
The forecast hasn’t changed all that much in the last 48 hours. Confidence remains high in the major details. Now, we get to the nitty-gritty stuff like hour-hour timelines and pinpoint snow amounts by region.
It all starts Tonight…
The bitter cold will begin to pour into New England after sunset on Friday.
By Saturday morning, air temperatures will fall to between -10 and 10 degrees in southern New England.
Wind chills will be downright dangerous, ranging from -25 to -15 degrees through Saturday morning.
Under these conditions, frostbite can occur on exposed skin in less than 30 minutes.
The winds will tend to relax later on Saturday but air temperatures will remain frigid through the entire weekend.
Up next, the snow…
Winter storm watches have been upgraded to winter storm warnings across southern New England by the National Weather Service.
Timeline…
There may be some stray flurries early Sunday morning here and there but the true shield of snow associated directly with the storm will
move in from south to north across southern New England between 8am and 2pm.
Approximate first flakes in Boston and Worcester: 11am-1pm
Massachusetts/New Hampshire border: Noon-3pm
It will slowly ramp up in intensity in the afternoon, becoming steady and somewhat heavy by nightfall.
The peak of the storm will occur from roughly 5pm Sunday through 1am Monday.
During this timeframe, visibility in some areas may drop below ¼ mile.
Some intense snow bands will form with snowfall rates of 1″ per hour or greater.
After 1am Monday morning, the steady/heavy snow starts to become more scattered…
A dry slot moves up over portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern MA. This will either shut off the precipitation completely or dramatically lessen the intensity.
The rain/mix line reaches its farthest northern location (likely around Plymouth).
Winds will be gusty out of the northeast along the Coastline.
A coastal front will sit just west of Boston, along I95, marking the difference in temperatures between the upper 20s to the east and teens to the west.
Early Monday morning, the storm makes its closest pass to southern New England and then begins to head east, out to sea. The winds will veer to the north, and the coastal front will be swept away. The frigid, Arctic air will push back over eastern and southeastern MA, and any standing water from the rain/mix area will freeze quickly.
Throughout the day on Monday, scattered areas and bands of snow will rotate from north to south . It will snow moderately in some areas, lightly or not at all in others.
There may be some locally heavy, ocean-enhanced bands of snow near the coastline.
After dark Monday night, the area of snow begins to rotate eastward, and the snow ends in central and western MA. The final few snow bands pass through eastern MA between 8pm and midnight.
By that measure, I would expect the roads to deteriorate Sunday late afternoon and become snow covered shortly after dark.
The most hazardous travel will be between about 7pm and 7am with a very slow, gradual improvement during the day Monday.
We are forecasting a widespread 12-20″ of snow across most of the area. Our largest storm in several years.
The exception being along the extreme South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands where we anticipate some ice and rain mixing in at times.
In those areas we are forecasting 6-12″ and a much heavier, wetter snow.
It is always hard to predict whether there will be a few areas that “overproduce” with more snow than expected. We are highlighting two areas with the possibility of receiving slightly more than 20″ of snow in this storm.
#1- North Shore through Boston and immediate South Shore…this area is a classic location for the formation of some heavier bands to form thanks to something we call ocean-enhancement. Essentially, this is caused by very cold, Arctic air flowing over the much milder Atlantic Ocean (similar to lake-effect in New York State). On a northeast wind, this can cause highly localized, moderate to heavy snow bands along the immediate Coastlines and areas a few miles inland…
#2- North and west of 495, including the higher elevated areas in Worcester county…these areas are notorious for staying very cold throughout the storm. The colder the air temperatures, the higher the “fluff factor”. If we can get enough moisture back in this region, the light and fluffy snow can really stack up quickly!
Here is an approximation of how much snow will be in your backyard and driveway as time passes Sunday and Monday…
One more thing to watch…Snow accumulation also depends somewhat upon the type of snowflake that is falling.
Dendrites (those classic 6-sided picturesque flakes), accumulate the best while other shapes like needles and columns do not tend to stack up as well.
The shape of the flakes is dependent upon where the flake is created in the atmosphere.
The perfect looking dendrites are created in temperatures that are between -20 and -10 degrees, this is called the dendritic growth zone.
When snow is formed at temperatures above or below that layer, you tend to get odd ball shapes that don’t stack up and accumulate well.
We are somewhat concerned with this storm that some of the snow growth may NOT occur in this ideal dendritic growth zone. This COULD lead to snow totals underperforming if that occurs.
Outside of the South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands, the snow in this storm is going to be very light and fluffy. This is largely good news as it is much easier to move around. In fact, you may even be able to clear you car off with a leaf blower in some of the colder areas!
This kind of snow also does not stick to tree limbs and power lines very well so, power outages are much less of a concern.
The one thing about snowfall in very cold temperatures is that it stacks up fast. You can easily get twice as much snow accumulation from a storm with temperatures in the teens than one with temperatures near 32 degrees (both having these same actual melted liquid content).
We have very little concern about the wind with this storm. We will see northeasterly gusts between 20-40mph right at the immediate coastline late Sunday night through early Monday. This is much lower than our typical strong and destructive nor’easters. Can we call this a nor’easter? Technically yes, but the winds will only be a minor issue.
A reminder that in order to achieve “blizzard conditions” you need to have 3 consecutive hours with sustained winds or frequent gusts at or over 35mph and visibility less than ¼ of a mile. That is not likely in the storm given the wind forecast. We may flirt with these types of conditions right at the coast at times but sustaining them seems unlikely.
As always, we urge that you stay tuned to WBZ-TV and WBZ.com for frequent updates before and during the storm. The WBZ NEXT Weather team has you covered!
Stay Safe and Go Pats!
Much like the Patriots in the playoffs, Boston has been on “snow hiatus” for the last several years.
For those who may have moved to the area after the winter of 2022, I would imagine you have a pretty weak opinion of what our winters are like here.
We have been in a snow drought like you read about.
The biggest snowstorms in Boston in the last 4 winters (including this one) have been between 3.5″-5.3″.
Perhaps the most astounding stat of all, it has been 1,427 days since Boston received 6″ or more in a single snowstorm, the second longest stretch on record.
That storm occurred on February 25, 2022.
It has been nearly as long since Boston had their last 12″ snowstorm, that came on January 29, 2022.
Looking at the total snow in Boston year by year going back to that infamous winter of 2014-2015, you can see we have only had two above average winters, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 and those were only slightly above average.
Boston averages just under 50″ per season and that is just about how much snow the City has had if you COMBINE the last 3 winters!
If you take any ten year stretch in Boston’s recorded history, the last 10 years rank as the #1 least snowy. Yes, you read that correctly, Boston has never had LESS snow in a 10 year period than in the last 10 years!
Ok native New Englanders, here is where we puff out our chests and say, “I remember the good ‘ol days”…nowfall up to the top of our homes and basketball hoops. We even had to bring in heavy loaders to ship our snow to snow farms not that long ago!
Crazy thing is, those “good ol’ days” actually weren’t that long ago…
The snowiest ten year stretch in Boston’s recorded history was 2008-2009 through 2017-2018.
Look at all those BIG snow years!
Three of the top 7 snowstorms in Boston came between 2003 and 2022. We had quite a stretch there for a while. It seemed like we were setting new snowfall records each year, literally rewriting the record books.
Looking a bit closer at that list, there are some real doozies!
Raise your hand if you remember the Blizzard of ’78, our second biggest snowstorm on record.
Or, how about the infamous April Fools’ Day storm in 1997, #4 on the list.
I am willing to bet that most of you have no recollection of the Presidcnts’ day storm in 2003, despite that fact that it is our single greatest snowfall on record.
Sure, it was A LOT of snow, 27.6″ to be exact. But, as far as nor’easters go, it really wasn’t all that bad. The snow was very light and fluffy, and Boston got in a heavy snow band late in the storm that beefed up the final numbers. I bring that storm up because I feel as though there may be some similarities between that event and our storm coming this weekend. We are not forecasting as much snow as 2003, but the idea will be the same…very light and fluffy, no coastal flooding issues, moderate wind gusts, and hopefully, very little wind damage or power outages.
Will this weekend’s storm find its way onto our historical lists? I would say unlikely but not impossible. Either way, with the Pats in the playoffs and a major storm raging outside, this weekend is going to feel like a real trip back in time!
Go Pats and stay safe.