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Terry Eliasen
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A very warm finish this week and more drought concerns

The sunny, dry times are forecast to continue well into next week with just a few slight chances of rain…the first late Tuesday and the second Friday morning. Neither of these are expected to bring any significant rainfall.

Outside of Memorial Day Weekend, Labor Day Weekend and the 4th of July, Halloween may be one of the most important weather forecasts of the entire year.  Nobody wants to wear a winter jacket or rain poncho over their costume.  Well, it should come as no surprise given the recent stretch of weather, the trick or treat forecast looks spectacular.  Is it possible to be too WARM on Halloween?

It will be warmer this Thursday, October 31st than any other Halloween since 1946!

In fact, we have a shot a breaking the record set on that date.

Highs around southern New England will reach near 80 degrees on Thursday, just a bit cooler along the South Coast with a southwesterly wind off the water.

Obviously, these are forecast highs for the day which occur around 2-3pm.  Temperatures will “cool” down somewhat as the sun sets at 5:38pm Thursday.  Early trick-or-treaters (5-7pm) will experience temperatures falling through the 70s.  Between 7-9pm, temperatures will fall into the upper 60s (keep in mind the average high for the date is only 57).  Thickening clouds overhead will actually help to slow the typical temperature drop after sunset.

We may get a brief sprinkle early Friday, but the front will move through very quickly…the rest of Friday will be mainly sunny, windy and warm.

Friday will be another very warm day with a chance at hitting another record high temperature.

This Weekend will be cooler, more seasonal, but still quite nice.

Don’t forget we turn the clocks back this Weekend!

For the first time in more than 2 years, a rather sizable portion of Massachusetts is now considered to be in severe drought.

In the past 7 days, the moderate drought region has doubled from 35% to 70%  and now, 14% of Massachusetts, including parts of Suffolk, Norfolk, Middlesex and Essex counties, have risen to severe drought levels.

This is no surprise given the extremely dry weather pattern as of late.  For the month of October, Boston received less than an inch of water, nearly 3″ below the average.

Couple that with a very dry September and that puts most of the region between 5-6″ below average rainfall in the last 2 months.

This is truly rarified air.  Two months into meteorological fall, Boston officially is 2nd driest on record and Worcester is 1st. 

There is no immediate pattern change coming.  A very weak cold front will pass through Friday morning bringing just a few sprinkles, likely nothing even measurable in most of southern New England.  The Weekend will be much cooler but dry as a bone.

Next week features more of the same.  We have a chance at another weak round of sprinkles Monday night into Tuesday, but no significant rain or storminess is in the cards in the near future.

This is still considered a short-term drought and thankfully it is coming at a time of year when water supplies are not as critical.  Growing season is over, so the impact to farmers, for now, will be minimal.

Water shortages are also not a top of mind issue this time of year since most folks have stopped using irrigation.

If you have planted grass seed over the last few weeks you will certainly need to keep those areas watered for now.  Also, be sure to keep the ground moist around any newly planted shrubs to ensure proper root growth and protection.

Finally, something I mentioned in a prior blog that I think bears repeating…

Looking through Boston’s history, a dry fall often has lingering impacts on the winter that follows.

In fact, the data shows that in nearly every case, the pattern continues.

If we take the 10 driest fall seasons on record in Boston, 8 of them had below average snowfalls that winter.  In many cases it was WELL below the average.

Boston averages about 49″ of snow in a season…the average for those 10 winters was about 28″ of snow.  

It is worth noting that most of the dataset is old, from the early and mid 1900s and obviously the state of our Planet and atmosphere is much different now than it was then.  Also, if November should end up being a wet month, that could also flip the script on winter.



Click here for Westford snow storm data and past totals or select “Winter Snowfall“ under “Pages” on the left hand side.

For more up to date forecast information follow me on Twitter (@terrywbz) or follow the WBZ weather team on Facebook, search WBZWeather

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