We’ve got a bit of a messy mix on the way Friday with periods of rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow throughout southern New England.
This will NOT be a major storm, overall impacts will range from low to moderate depending on your location.
TIMELINE:
A mix of rain, sleet and snow will move in during the afternoon on Friday but it will be rather spotty and unorganized.
Surface temperatures will also remain largely above freezing during the daylight hours, making it very difficult for snow to stick or accumulate.
The best chance for snow accumulation and snow-covered roadways will be later Friday night, after 8pm. Colder air will filter in on the backside of the storm and change any mixed precipitation over to snow. There will be scattered snow for a good portion of the overnight hours.
You can see that even after dawn on Saturday, there could be some final snow showers or coastal flurries.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:
Coating – 1″ From Plymouth to Providence northward up to the Mass Pike including Boston and Worcester. (All at the end of the storm, Friday night)
1″ -3″ Areas north of the Pike up to about Route 2 and near the MA/NH border (Mostly all Friday night)
3″ – 6″ north of Route 2, northernmost Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire.
(By the way, ski areas in central and northern New England will LOVE this storm! A fresh 6-10″ for most!)
Here…we…go.
We have a major nor’easter headed our way Sunday night and Monday. This will be our second major winter storm this winter. The January storm was essentially all about the snow. It was light and fluffy and obviously really piled up fast. Monday’s storm will be a bit more complex and also hazardous.
-The snow will be heavier/wetter along the Coast and Cape which heightens the power outage and roof collapse risk.
-The winds will be howling, gusting as high as 70+ mph along the southeast Massachusetts coastline.
-Combine the heavy snow and the powerful winds and there will almost certainly be blizzard (whiteout) conditions in many areas.
-Lastly, we also expect some coastal flooding during a few high tide cycles
This storm is coming out of the deep South and will be loaded with moisture.
It will start to take shape on Sunday as it emerges off the North Carolina coastline.
This week, we have been discussing several different track scenarios…it now appears as though the center of the storm is going to pass either right over or just southeast of “the benchmark”, 40N/70W, an ideal location for a classic New England nor’easter.
As the storm travels north-northeasterly Sunday night and Monday, it will undergo “bombogenesis”, a fancy term for a very rapidly deepening and strengthening low pressure system.
TIMELINE
The first flakes could come as early as just after sunset on Sunday.
The steadiest snow will overspread the area from south to north between 10pm Sunday night and 3am Monday morning.
By dawn on Monday, the storm will be raging, and the snow will be flying. Snowfall rates in the heaviest bands could easily exceed 1″ per hour for several consecutive hours.
Travel at this time will be absolutely treacherous.
The storm peak will begin just before dawn on Monday and last through Monday afternoon with a very slow tapering overnight into early Tuesday.
HOW MUCH:
We are forecasting 10-16″ across all of eastern Massachusetts, essentially along and east of I95. This includes the North and South Shores, Boston Metro, Cape Cod and the islands.
6-10″ are anticipated west of I95 in a good portion of Middlesex and Worcester counties as well as southern New Hampshire.
Amounts taper off the farther west you go.
As for a potential “jackpot zone”…right now we are favoring Plymouth and Bristol counties in southeastern Massachusetts. We feel there is a high threat of heavy banding there which could push local totals over 16”.
WINDS:
This is a real concern…Northeast gusts will reach 55-70mph or higher across southeastern MA, Cape Cod and the Islands.
Just inland from there, we could see gusts between 40-55mph.
Again, the farther west you go, the lower the wind impacts.
Because of these powerful winds and heavy snow bands, there is a high likelihood of reaching blizzard conditions along the immediate coastline and over the Cape and Islands.
For an official blizzard, you need falling or blowing snow that reduces visibility to less than ΒΌ mile for at least 3 consecutive hours AND sustained or frequent wind gusts greater than 35mph for the same time period.
These areas will also be at the highest risk for power outages as well.
Finally, we have concern for some minor to moderate coastal flooding during the Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning high tides.
There will almost certainly be significant splashover, coastal inundation and beach erosion.
Peak tides occur around 3pm Monday and again around 3-4am Tuesday.
